50% DOW plunges measured from their highs to lows have usually been followed by at least a 50% retrace.
This includes the decline after 1929. Most of the time price continued upwards, within a relatively short period of time.
After 1929's initial 50% plunge recovery, the DJIA didn't continue working its way higher...it just kept on going down.
The 1929 high peaked just under 400...the DOW ultimately declined nearly 90%, bottoming just above 41 in 1932.
It did not recover to the 1929 high until the mid 1950's, some 25 years later...
See the chart of yearly bars at the top of this page...The Creature from Jekyll Island that is referred to along the bottom of the chart is a book describing the creation and results of the Federal Reserve System of the United States of America, written by G. Edward Griffin.
IMO, the FED was the primary cause of the great stock market run up through the 1920's and the subsequent 25 year languishing that followed the 1929 crash...
Of course the great Roosevelt depression years, the occurrence of the Dust Bowl
followed by WW II had much to do with the long recovery time.
This includes the decline after 1929. Most of the time price continued upwards, within a relatively short period of time.
After 1929's initial 50% plunge recovery, the DJIA didn't continue working its way higher...it just kept on going down.
The 1929 high peaked just under 400...the DOW ultimately declined nearly 90%, bottoming just above 41 in 1932.
It did not recover to the 1929 high until the mid 1950's, some 25 years later...
See the chart of yearly bars at the top of this page...The Creature from Jekyll Island that is referred to along the bottom of the chart is a book describing the creation and results of the Federal Reserve System of the United States of America, written by G. Edward Griffin.
IMO, the FED was the primary cause of the great stock market run up through the 1920's and the subsequent 25 year languishing that followed the 1929 crash...
Of course the great Roosevelt depression years, the occurrence of the Dust Bowl
followed by WW II had much to do with the long recovery time.
1929 through 2013 - marked with plunges on a Quarterly logarithmic chart.
I found only 6 periods where the DJIA plunged more than 40% from a high to Low.
(The charts below are from WWW.FreeStockCharts.com - data starts in 1928)
Most of the time, drops in the DJIA have been limited to a 20% to 30% range.
There were five 40% or greater plunges from 1900 through 1922 but none that broke 50%...
The low print at the end of 1921 was 63.90, which came after a two year hi-low plunge of 47%...
From there the INDU gained nearly 500% through the roaring 20's...
(The chart below is from StockCharts.com going back to 1900)
The following charts and comments are my 2nd attempt to
document historical price action in the Industrials...
Originally I studied plunges and drops going back to 1900. I first did this study in March 2009
as the most recent 55% plunge was making it's bottom .
Due to a couple sets of concurrent circumstances I lost my original studies
including the charts I had uploaded to this blog.
(All my charts - gone via a hard drive crash and my back-up pic's that were on ClearStation - also gone)
My current data feed for QuoteTracker (charts below) goes back only to 1928.
The big one
It took until 1954 for the DJIA to retrace all of the massive plunge after 1929.
It took 14 years to retrace 50% of the plunge, though it came close in 1937.
The 1929 plunge and the run to the bottom in 1932...Both charts are Weekly.
The period between 1937 through 1942 had back-to-back plunges, of 50% and 52% respectively.
(or it had one 5 year 52% plunge, depending on your point of view)
The chart on the left is a weekly, the one on the right is 10 days/bar.
15 years passed after the Industrials peaked in 1929. It languished range bound well into the 1940's
unable to reach even 50% of that high...It was not until 1946 did it break above 1937's 197 level...
But it wasn't long before it retreated back into the previous range...It took another 4 years before the 50% mark
was toppled for good in 1950.
The 52% drop spanning the years 1937 - 1942 recovered 50% of the loss by the 2nd year
of WW II and never looked back. Here's a look at the DJIA over the war years.
I found only 6 periods where the DJIA plunged more than 40% from a high to Low.
(The charts below are from WWW.FreeStockCharts.com - data starts in 1928)
Most of the time, drops in the DJIA have been limited to a 20% to 30% range.
There were five 40% or greater plunges from 1900 through 1922 but none that broke 50%...
The low print at the end of 1921 was 63.90, which came after a two year hi-low plunge of 47%...
From there the INDU gained nearly 500% through the roaring 20's...
(The chart below is from StockCharts.com going back to 1900)
The following charts and comments are my 2nd attempt to
document historical price action in the Industrials...
Originally I studied plunges and drops going back to 1900. I first did this study in March 2009
as the most recent 55% plunge was making it's bottom .
Due to a couple sets of concurrent circumstances I lost my original studies
including the charts I had uploaded to this blog.
(All my charts - gone via a hard drive crash and my back-up pic's that were on ClearStation - also gone)
My current data feed for QuoteTracker (charts below) goes back only to 1928.
The big one
It took until 1954 for the DJIA to retrace all of the massive plunge after 1929.
It took 14 years to retrace 50% of the plunge, though it came close in 1937.
The 1929 plunge and the run to the bottom in 1932...Both charts are Weekly.
Next are two charts spanning 1930 through 1937... 5 years after '29
and the DJIA hasn't even recovered 50% of that high.
The chart on the left is a weekly, the one on the right is 10 days/bar.
(or it had one 5 year 52% plunge, depending on your point of view)
The chart on the left is a weekly, the one on the right is 10 days/bar.
15 years passed after the Industrials peaked in 1929. It languished range bound well into the 1940's
unable to reach even 50% of that high...It was not until 1946 did it break above 1937's 197 level...
But it wasn't long before it retreated back into the previous range...It took another 4 years before the 50% mark
was toppled for good in 1950.
The 52% drop spanning the years 1937 - 1942 recovered 50% of the loss by the 2nd year
of WW II and never looked back. Here's a look at the DJIA over the war years.
1949 through 1966
25 years of growth (+433%)
Here's the 1987 Black Monday plunge...was 'only' 41% but it's remembered more for how quickly it dropped...
The P/A shape was very reminiscent of '29. This was the take of many stock market pundits interviewed on FNN (pre-CNBC).
The 1999-2002......40% plunge
The 2007-2009.....55% plunge
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These are the only original survivors of my hard drive crash from way back when...
1946 through 1982............1982 through 2013
40 years growth (+614%)...............30 years growth (+1783%)
40 years growth (+614%)...............30 years growth (+1783%)
A history from 1943 to 2013...each candle is comprised of 60 days...
The 1972-1974.....47% plunge
The P/A shape was very reminiscent of '29. This was the take of many stock market pundits interviewed on FNN (pre-CNBC).
The 1999-2002......40% plunge
The 2007-2009.....55% plunge
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These are the only original survivors of my hard drive crash from way back when...
